Seasonal Warmth Continues as Slight Thunderstorm Chance Lingers Near Eastern Douglas County

ROSEBURG, Ore. - Seasonal warmth, dry weather and afternoon breezes are expected to continue across Southern Oregon this week, with a small chance of thunderstorms near the eastern edge of Douglas County Monday afternoon and evening.

In Roseburg, Monday is expected to be partly sunny with a high near 88 degrees. Winds will be calm early before becoming north-northwest around 6 mph during the afternoon.

Monday night is forecast to be mostly clear with a low around 55 degrees. North-northwest winds around 5 mph are expected to become calm during the evening.

The National Weather Service in Medford said Monday morning that southwest flow will remain over the region, keeping temperatures generally near seasonal levels while relatively dry air limits precipitation chances.

Forecasters are watching areas near the Douglas and Klamath county border Monday afternoon and evening, where there is about a 5% to 10% chance of isolated thunderstorms.

Forecast models have shown slightly more support for thunderstorm development than in recent days, with a small amount of monsoonal moisture reaching westward into the area. However, lingering high clouds could reduce daytime heating and make it more difficult for storms to develop.

Any thunderstorm chance is expected to decrease after Monday as the deeper moisture shifts east.

For most of Douglas County, including Roseburg, dry weather and afternoon breezes will remain the main story. The combination of warm temperatures, dry conditions and occasional gusty afternoon winds will also keep fire weather concerns in place through the week.

Temperatures are expected to increase slightly around the middle of the week as high pressure strengthens to the south and pushes farther west. Forecast highs could gain a few degrees before another weather system begins influencing the region later in the week.

A cutoff low moving through the Pacific is expected to approach Southern Oregon toward the end of the week and into the weekend.

Earlier forecasts suggested the system could bring a greater chance of thunderstorms, but its projected track has shifted farther west and north. That has reduced the expected thunderstorm threat, although a slight chance has not been completely ruled out.

The approaching low could also bring stronger winds to the Shasta Valley and areas east of the Cascades. The National Weather Service currently expects those winds to remain below advisory levels.

As the system moves through, temperatures are expected to cool, potentially falling a few degrees below normal heading into the weekend.

For Roseburg and much of Douglas County, the overall forecast remains relatively quiet: warm and mostly dry through much of the week, with afternoon breezes and only a limited thunderstorm threat focused primarily on the far eastern portion of the county.